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WRITER, CONSULTANT AND BROADCASTER SPECIALISING IN BEER, PUBS AND CIDER. BEER WRITER OF THE YEAR 2009 AND 2012

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Sunday, 10 January 2010

Answering the neo prohibitionists, 1 of 10: "Alcohol Consumption in the UK is increasing"

“Over the last 60 years English drinking habits have been transformed. In 1947 the nation consumed approximately three and a half litres of pure alcohol per head; the current figure is nine and a half litres.”

The Parliamentary Health Select Committee Report on Alcohol


Why choose 1947? Oh, that’s why!

The Select Committee acknowledges that “The history of the consumption of alcohol over the last 500 years has been one of fluctuations, of peaks and troughs.”

So why choose 1947 as your point of comparison? Isn’t it odd to say “How have drinking patterns changed over the last 63 years?”

The reason for choosing this seemingly random date is that it represents a really low consumption point – any comparison is only going to look better if you deliberately choose the lowest point.[1] By choosing 1947, the Committee is deliberately ‘spinning’ the figures – manipulating data to suit their case.

That in itself is statistically weaselly, but would be just about valid were it not for one key fact: alcohol consumption in the late 1940s was atypical of British drinking patterns over time, thanks to extraordinary and never repeated factors, and therefore does not represent a valid point of comparison.

In World War Two:

  • Thanks to material shortages, the average strength of beer decreased markedly. Even though people were drinking more beer, they were consuming less alcohol through beer.
  • Spirits consumption virtually disappeared because (a) there were acute grain shortages. Production of Britain’s indigenous spirit – whisky – collapsed, and any existing volume was exported for valuable income; and (b) imports of spirits virtually ceased thanks to dangers to shipping – essentials had to be prioritized.
  • Many pubs were bombed out

The post-war years (including 1947) were even leaner than the war, as a broke country started to rebuild itself. It took years before the British economy got back to normal. When it did, alcohol consumption began to rise again.

1947 is therefore a ridiculous point with which to make comparison.


Changing British Drinking Patterns: The Truth

Alcohol consumption rose through the second half of the twentieth century because society became more prosperous, people had more income, and the economic foundation of Britain changed from being a manufacturing economy to a leisure/service economy.

Nevertheless, if we were to choose 1870, or 1900, or 1914 as our year of comparison, the story would be one of declining consumption. Too far in the past to be relevant? OK, how about 2004? Not long enough? OK, how about 2000?

Over the last ten years, alcohol consumption has declined. It rose between 2000 and 2004, but has since declined – per capita alcohol consumption in the UK in 2009 was the same as it was in 1999, and 0.9% lower than in 2000.

In other words – over a statistically relevant time scale, UK alcohol consumption is NOT increasing.

The Select Committee Report is forced to acknowledge this inconvenient truth. Deep in the text, it admits that “since 2004 when consumption peaked, there has been a slight decrease in alcohol consumption in terms of litres of pure alcohol,” but says it is “unclear” whether this is just “a blip”.

But by the time they get to their conclusions and Executive Summary, this inconvenient ‘blip’ has been forgotten. There is no mention of a recent fall in consumption, only that “the rising levels of alcohol consumption and their consequences have been an increasing source of concern in recent years”.

The Select Committee also argues that the decline is not a “clear and consistent pattern of falling consumption since 2003”. But look at this chart:

I guess their point is that the increase in 2007 means the decline is not ‘consistent’. But any statistician or data analyst I’ve ever met (and I’ve met more than I would have liked) would say that this graph represents a very 'clear' downward trend.

At the very least then, the Select Committee is being wilfully misleading about one of the central tenets of its report.


Finally – a note about international comparisons

The Committee reports that the UK has “One of highest consumption rates in Europe”.

The truth is we’re actually 9th – behind Luxembourg, Ireland, Hungary, Moldova, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Germany and Spain.

At the time of writing, Fulham are 9th in the Premier League. Would even Fulham fans attempt to argue that their team is ‘one of the highest’ in the Premiership?



[1] The only time in the twentieth century when alcohol consumption was lower was the final years of the First World War – probably too tenuous a date even for the Committee.


15 comments:

The Beer Nut said...

I'm enjoying this because the same flawed analysis gets trotted out over here too. Increasing alcohol consumption is just one of those things that sounds like it ought to be true -- we all watch the news, right? -- yet only requires a cursory glance at the data to disprove. The peak of consumption here was in 2001 and the fall has been steady since.

Keep it coming!

J said...

Ditto, the U.S., sad to say. It seems every nation has its share of nutbags.

Curmudgeon said...

Excellent stuff - surely this analysis needs to form the basis of your next book!

redcirclegroup said...

good speech Pete. The politicisation of research is getting worse, especially in the hands of modern-day puritans. Having said all that, this anti-drink movement has got some momentum and I fear it will take some stopping - with more well-reasoned argument such as yours.

ZakAvery said...

Nice work. Very nice work.

Ed said...

I thought starting in 1947 looked highly suspicious. Great stuff Pete!

mentaldental said...

And 9.5 litres of alcohol per head per year seems to work out at about 1 pint of 4.0% beer per adult per day.

So that's within the dubious government recommendations, isn't it?

mentaldental said...

Good news! The nice people at The British Heart Foundation (http://www.heartstats.org/datapage.asp?id=4597) put us a paltry 15th in the European alcohol consumption table (after Luxembourg, Czech Republic, Hungary, Ireland, Moldova, Estonia, Germany, Austria, Croatia, France, Denmark, Spain, Slovenia & Slovakia).

Their figures are for 1970 - 2005. During this period our per capita consumption was 11.4 litres alcohol per annum compared with a EU average of 11.0. That's 0.36% greater than the European average.

It's nice to see that the Select Committee is so concerned about us being average!

Private Poontang said...

At last some decent research to back-up what we piss-artists had already figured out - there's only a dwindling number of us left to fly the flag for conspicuous and orderly consumption of the nectar.
And most of them were in my local last night having trudged through a blizzard to get there leaving wives and bairns shivering around the hearth at home.
Now that's dedication !

Eddie said...

Did you catch 'more or less' on R4 last Friday? They debunked some of the NHS Confederation's recent claims about souring costs from alcohol abuse (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00plzyj).

Ron Pattinson said...

One word of caution about the national league table of alcohol consumption. The figures for Luxembourg are badly distorted by cross-border shopping. So the UK could possibly be 8th rather than 9th.

zythophile said...

Pah! Those Letzeburgers are piss-heads, Ron, don't try to make up excuses for them!

CarsmileSteve said...

Also, are we talking about 8th/9th in the EU or Europe as a whole, 8th out of 50 would be in highest bit, ask Plymouth fans if fulham are highly ranked...

Bolero Sanchez said...

15th in the alcohol consumption league?

that's mildly embarrassing, I ought to get pissed, put some pressure on the statistics..

Anonymous said...

truly are a bunch of NUT-cases. would love to walk in with home brewing kit and 6 pack of beer to help analyze the situation.

http://boozebin.com/